Andy Burnham is the most popular politician in Britain — for now. That addendum has become rather important over the last decade of parliamentary tenures in the UK, after David Cameron stepped down as Prime Minister following Brexit. The country's had five more prime ministers since, not one blessed with a stable term. Theresa May, unable to get her own withdrawal agreement passed in Parliament, resigned in 2019. She was followed by Boris Johnson — yes, the one who infamously got stuck on a zip wire, waving the country's flag — who faced the wrath of his own party. In 2022, Johnson was succeeded by Liz Truss, whose tenure was no longer than 49 days. The only memorabilia from her term was the shocker of a mini-budget she managed to present — and the Queen's death. Then came Rishi Sunak, whose 2024 loss to Labour put an end to the Conservative run.
When Keir Starmer became Prime Minister, this was read as the revival of the Labour Party, rebuilt by his work and massively rewarded with a parliamentary majority. But Andy Burnham's by-election win from Makerfield just sealed the disillusion that many have felt and voiced about Starmer's politics. And so, his term too has abruptly fallen. The final blow to Starmer, even in his exit, came in the form of Donald Trump’s Truth Social post. On June 21, Trump claimed that Starmer would quit the following day and also criticised his handling of “immigration and energy”. While the UK government confirmed that Starmer and Trump had not spoken over the weekend, this only furthered the Prime Minister’s image as one susceptible to American control, and especially, Trump’s ways.
But why has British politics become unstable? Why has it, in the last decade, failed to produce leaders who can hold full parliamentary terms? The Atlantic Council's assessment points not just to Brexit, but also the slower growth, fiscal pressures, and a highly polarized political environment as key reasons (likely by-products of the 'leave' or 'remain'), especially when Europe, in a general trend, has been reacting against traditional parties for their repetition of crises. The Atlantic Council also adds that the 24-hour news cycle has augmented scrutiny, thus making political lifespans vulnerable.
This is the frame that welcomes Burnham now. He does not have a fresh mandate to back him up, and is, in fact, inheriting a party that has shown hardly any reverence to its leaders. The country, on the other hand, is fed up with being told that change is only a turn away. Burnham did win a difficult Makerfield with 54.8% of votes, and defeated Reform by under 10,000 votes. What helped him make the case for change? The promise to do anything but replicate the ways of the right and its populism. Burnham, whose entry to politics was through Tony Blair, and first ministerial stint through Gordon Brown, proudly calls his model “Manchesterism” — “business-friendly socialism”, in simpler terms.
Burnham is ambitious with his wants. He has vowed to put energy, housing, water, and transport under stronger public control — this includes nationalising Thames Water. In place of the House of Lords, he wants an elected Senate with proportional representation. Burnham also moots the idea of decentralisation, devolving powers from Whitehall to cities and other regions in England. This would mean greater control over transport, skills, and housing for these smaller governance units. House-building, he’s stated, is a central priority. For the NHS, Burnham has in mind integrated commissioning, and not market fragmentation. He also pushes for a higher minimum wage to those under twenty-five.
Burnham’s political positions place him squarely between Jeremy Corbyn and Keir Starmer. But, his stance on immigration has surprisingly taken a hard-right pivot, not too different from the conservative rhetoric on border management. For most of his political career, Burnham has argued against the rule that prevented legal recourse to public funds for asylum seekers, believing this to be one of the major reasons driving homelessness in his city. Reform UK has used this to dub an ‘open-borders Andy’ campaign in opposition. But Burnham has backtracked on many of his takes concerning immigration. He no longer wants NRPF scrapped and is more than happy to welcome a fall in net migration. He has also pledged to make better, stronger use of immigration detention centres in what he sees as a return to some sense of order — this echoes Reform UK voices like Nigel Farage. This may be a classic example of ‘reading the room’, or, in this case, reading the voter base for maximum expansion of support. The Burnham paradox, dotted by opportunism, is perhaps best explained by a joke that’s doing its rounds on social media now: “a Blairite, a Brownite, and a Corbynite walk into a pub; the barman asks, “What are you drinking, Andy?”
But, outpacing his manifesto, is Andy Burnham’s manufactured image as the ‘outsider’; someone who has remained distant from the national centre, and thus, holds no risk of repeating the same blank promises of former glory, none capable whatsoever of providing relief to a crowd still in splits about the aftermath of Brexit. Burnham wishes to rebuild trust from below and give people in places like Makerfield visibility and a certain sense of power in influencing decisions that shape their lives. Politics should not be a closed, 'London-only' gig. If Burnham manages to convert his 'commoner' optics into actual accessibility, it would be appreciable — that is, if he can stand his ground to the growing clamour of Reform UK, which has already spelled out what he should say on immigration.
The mechanics of Labour’s leadership transition are now moving with remarkable speed. Nominations open on July 9 and will close a week later. To mark a spot on the ballot, each candidate should be backed by 81 nominations from Labour MPs. If nobody else shows up for a challenge, Burnham could well be on his way to Downing Street by July 17. Several probables have already marked themselves off the race. This includes Darren Jones who, after a “reassuring” conversation with Burnham, did not think it necessary to get his own feet in. While more than 100 MPs have expressed concern about Burnham’s fiscal plans, Jones has pointed to the “room” available for bargaining. With Jones out of the way, the only contender set to emerge is Al Carnes, the former Defence Minister who resigned over a spending row this month.
Ideological purity is not what the UK, with all its exhaustion, expects right now. Whether Andy Burnham of Manchester, Makerfield, or a secret third thing becomes a Blairite, Brownite, or Corbynite, as the joke goes, would be the least of all concerns, as long as he can hold a fractured country together long enough.
